When people have run large scale versions of this game it’s a pretty robust finding that a lot of people will guess above 50 and a decent fraction will guess above 66.67 so, uh, stick that in your rationality pipe I guess.https://twitter.com/JessicaNutt96/status/1495426472936357894 …
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A much larger experiment was done in 2005 but I can only find it in Danish, you can search for "Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle" but this is the relevant chartpic.twitter.com/EGO8PLE79W
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Thanks! I took thaler's phd class at Chicago where we played this game and the results weren't so stark but still not at the nash eqm. So k << infinity in levels of thinking among Chicago phd students. Had nv seen broader results before this.
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on the three types of traders