who are these people guessing above 66.67 and can i sell them some unregulated financial products
When people have run large scale versions of this game it’s a pretty robust finding that a lot of people will guess above 50 and a decent fraction will guess above 66.67 so, uh, stick that in your rationality pipe I guess.https://twitter.com/JessicaNutt96/status/1495426472936357894 …
A professor in one of my grad classes posed a simple experiment: everyone guess a number between 0 and 100. Whoever could guess closest to 2/3 of the mean the class guesses would win $20.
A 
on the three types of traders
on the three types of traders
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crypto groupies
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LOL "Why do prop firms pay so much for order flow?"
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Proving everyone is, in fact, above average.
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I was part of one, answered 80 because I was tired and didn't get it, got called a troll by the computer.
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I've always wondered if you had some real stakes maybe a dime/point you are off, all goes to the closest guess and played repeated games how fast it'd converge.
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Where do you reckon it actually would converge? My guess would be much closer to 33.3 than 0. Maybe just under 30?
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Would like some citations if you have em!
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Sure - Nagel - "Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study" is the most widely cited, this is the relevant chart from that paperpic.twitter.com/fBD7BvHtIL
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There is a way to model this in game theoretic terms which I've first heard from David K. Levine: there are "level 0 players" who simply guess uniformly at random, "level 1 players" who assume everyone is at level 0, level 2 players who assume everyone is at levels 0 or 1, etc.
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Here the level zero people guess randomly, level one people guess 100/3, level two people guess something less than that, and as the level goes to infinity you converge to the Nash equilibrium of the game.
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