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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
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@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Travis.web1‏ @coloradotravis Feb 2

      The economy: it’s not fine. https://twitter.com/Financialjuice1/status/1488863569898876935 …pic.twitter.com/sAzvWq5xZv

      17 replies 8 retweets 89 likes
    2. DC‏ @AnalystDC Feb 2
      Replying to @coloradotravis

      let’s see when the real number comes out… ADP is a mess, mostly just noise at this point imo either way I don’t think it will matter very much to the Fed since they can just say “look through it” cause of Omicronpic.twitter.com/tdAkXwMeCA

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    3. Travis.web1‏ @coloradotravis Feb 2
      Replying to @AnalystDC

      ADP serves a market segment I’m pretty familiar with. Dunno if I’d agree that it’s entirely noise.

      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    4. DC‏ @AnalystDC Feb 2
      Replying to @coloradotravis

      it used to be better but since mid-2020 or so something is off they’ve been directionally correct somehow but besides that almost no correlation… probably need to recalibrate their model at some pointpic.twitter.com/fmq01HEmGI

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod Feb 2
      Replying to @AnalystDC @coloradotravis

      I used to use ADP as a pretty reliable guide to nonfarm numbers in ~2010 but already then it was breaking down (and getting priced in by traders, womp womp)

      6:58 AM - 2 Feb 2022
      • 4 Likes
      • Jessica Nutt Tho Do William Anderson DC
      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. David H‏ @dhorsb Feb 2
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @AnalystDC @coloradotravis

          Does NFP even really matter now? It was an important indicator in the post GFC world, but we’re somewhat past that, and basically at full employment in the US. Inflation is a much bigger driver now.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1.  🕹 ⁉️‏ @volpompilano Feb 2
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @AnalystDC @coloradotravis

          I am sure @JessicaNutt96 has an opinion on it.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Jessica Nutt‏ @JessicaNutt96 Feb 2
          Replying to @volpompilano @macrocephalopod and

          ADP is directionally right but otherwise useless. However, I take no signal on the strength of the economy from one off Omicron absenteeism.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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