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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest 30 Apr 2021

      im going to spill some #realtalk on FI and MBS investing here in a sec. its going to be a little wonky and different than the stuff i usually do but maybe you will like it or maybe you wont. the aim is to demystify this opaque market and show how its really not that sophisticated

      4 replies 7 retweets 81 likes
      Show this thread
    2. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest 30 Apr 2021

      this is a yield table of a bond i bought. from left to right its modeled prepayment speeds and yields. left-most is at the present rates the day i bought it. as you move right its modeled outcomes as rates decline from 15 to 40bp (parallel shift but keyed mostly to 7y tsy + dPSS)pic.twitter.com/eAa8sNZGfi

      1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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    3. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest 30 Apr 2021

      theres no scenarios if rates go up becuse the tranche is already fully-extended. it works like a regular bond if rates go higher. as you can see, if rates go lower the bond i bought at a discount gets shorter and i amortize the discount in less time so the YTM is higher.

      2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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    4. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest 30 Apr 2021

      so i have bought “convexity” (optionality), in this case i think it was cheap. if rates stay where they are my bond is long and my option lasts as long as the bonds do, if rates go low the option is exercised sooner (by the actual borrowers via refinance) to monetize it.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod Feb 2
      Replying to @NewRiverInvest

      maybe I’m being dumb but aren’t you actually short an option here? as in, if yields go down price goes up but not as much as an equivalent bond with no prepay would (so you have negative convexity)?

      1:13 AM - 2 Feb 2022
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest Feb 2
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          the convexity is synthetic because the cashflow you bought at a discount gets called early. so you buy a 10y zero that ends up being a 2y zero. its more call-spread than call but its still convex

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest Feb 2
          Replying to @NewRiverInvest @macrocephalopod

          it’s FI so its dumb bc the underlying is a curve not a scalar and the effect is synthetic but your 10 becomes a 2 and you can still reinvest in a new 10 so its not short the option because you regain the option by getting the cashflow early. they’re reinvestment risk instruments

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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