Top performers: regression to the mean or autocorrelation - that is the question. (Sadly picking the losers doesn't result in winning, so asymmetric else it'd be a simple job.)
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For U.S. equity mutual funds, I found this by
@FactorResearch, which is not observed for hedge funds though?pic.twitter.com/pTlY5IB4Wp
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Studies also pointing to fund flows begetting temporary future alphas (Ahoniemi & Jylha).
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So you're saying... Most analysts at pension funds and other allocators could sufficiently be replaced by an intern who can sort by returns on Morningstar?
@Nd172557208
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No sir, the allocators get paid for sorting on 2y returns, not 3 yr! Big diff and worth their weight in gold!
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Higher AUM leads to underperformance?
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Just like mortgage brokers in 2007-2008 right?
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At that horizon, what little performance persistence there is tends to be clustered around the worst performing quantile (largely due to fees). But from the perspective of the individual allocator career risk trumps investment logic.
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do you happen to remember where you read this study?
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