Tesla is a good example of why alternative data hasn’t helped the hedge fund industry as much as hoped - even if you knew sales or earnings in advance, it’d have been hard or impossible to make $. We live in cash flow from financing world, not cash flow from operations world
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Replying to @goodalexander
Hmm is that true? Have never tested, but I feel like a portfolio which is long biggest future earnings beats, short misses, adjusted for size/sector, would do extremely well even over the last 2-5 years.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @goodalexander
My response to “why hasn’t alternative data helped the hedge fund industry” is two-fold. First, much of the data is bad (eg low breadth, short history, poor data quality, not updated in a timely manner etc) or useless (already baked into earnings estimates or reflected in price)
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @goodalexander
Second, it’s not true that alternative data hasn’t helped. Some of it has been and still is very predictive, you just need to know where to look (and have tested a lot of data sets out of sample).
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @goodalexander
would agree the issue with alternative data is that a lot of it might have issues, but there will be some datasets which are useful. I often hear about which datasets are not very useful, but for obvious reasons if folks find some useful, they'll generally be quiet.
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Not only keep quiet, but actively try to prevent discovery eg with exclusivity agreements, lawsuits or even buying the firm that produces the data and in-housing it.
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