Is a new trend emerging? Or is this just the work of Covidiots? https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.625778/full …pic.twitter.com/eaWmeqEr6H
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This is an odd claim to make given that the UK was 2-3 weeks late to go into lockdown in both Q1 and Q4 2020. The counter view was sufficiently tolerated that it delayed the correct course of action for weeks!
I don’t know why there are lockdowns in Europe now btw. I don’t think we need lockdowns or travel bans any more, except maybe in countries where vax rates are very low. But we’re in a v different situation today vs 2020.
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The other thing that I saw far less of than I expected was cost v QALY-modelling for both covid and restrictions. Anywhere with public healthcare already prices lives (or QALY’s), so isn’t this a natural framework to start from? (I recognise that modelling would start out … 1/n
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incomplete, and that there were perhaps needs for large uncertainty factors around plausible tail risks etc, but as time passed and we gathered better data, we should’ve been able to tighten the bounds on what the cost/benefit trade-offs are, and at least aim to be coherent… 2/n
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Main reasoning is that our (NL) IC's can withstand narrow peaks. While it is true covid is not as lethal as a year ago, that would change 180 degrees as soon as all ventilators are occupied. The fear is that we know Omicron will give a very narrow and..
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... very high peak, but we're not certain enough it is very mild. Being 90% sure it's mild is not enough, and I don't think we can be more certain than that at this point
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