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@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Matt Hollerbach‏ @breakingthemark 17 Dec 2021

      Matt Hollerbach Retweeted Robert Martin

      Have you ever seen a financial study that looks for mean reversion or momentum in an asset, and takes this math into consideration? They all ignore it.https://twitter.com/robertmartin88/status/1471855929805066241 …

      Matt Hollerbach added,

      Robert Martin @robertmartin88
      1/ The funny thing about the Hot Hand Fallacy is that there actually is a Hot Hand effect in basketball. A small thread on a surprising statistical mistake.
      Show this thread
      4 replies 4 retweets 27 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Matt Hollerbach‏ @breakingthemark 17 Dec 2021

      I think this post is probably most underappreciated and shared post, probably because I wrote it early in the blog when I had so few readers.https://breakingthemarket.com/klay-thompson-from-downtown-why-im-skeptical-of-momentum-and-you-should-be-too/ …

      4 replies 2 retweets 27 likes
      Show this thread
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 22 Dec 2021
      Replying to @breakingthemark

      macrocephalopod Retweeted macrocephalopod

      Even if the effect size was big enough to matter (which I don’t think it is for equities) it completely disappears when you look for consecutive runs symmetrically instead of asymmetrically.https://twitter.com/macrocephalopod/status/1472157606169006082 …

      macrocephalopod added,

      macrocephalopod @macrocephalopod
      Replying to @robertmartin88
      What would result be (eg in the three flip case) if instead of just looking for HH sequences, you looked for either HH or TT, which is what you would do if you were testing to see whether a momentum effect existed in stocks?
      4:58 AM - 22 Dec 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • emily Jason @ Mutiny 🦑🪳🏴‍☠️ liquidity providoooor
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. Matt Hollerbach‏ @breakingthemark 22 Dec 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          Matt Hollerbach Retweeted Matt Hollerbach

          Not sure about it disappearing.https://twitter.com/breakingthemark/status/1473678341278474241?s=20 …

          Matt Hollerbach added,

          Matt Hollerbach @breakingthemark
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @robertmartin88
          Isn't that the same as asking what's the odds of the next coin being heads or tails? Kick it up a level and look at H after HH or T after TT, and you still see the effect. pic.twitter.com/OsQ40SnUnz
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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