and subject the overall portfolio to a large series of extreme stress tests based on large directional moves or basis moves, ensuring that it stays within acceptable tolerances under a wide range of assumptions about how markets behave
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Replying to @bennpeifert @goodalexander and
rather than building some super complicated highly overparameterized stochastic volatility model and then "believing" this model in some deep sense reflects reality
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Replying to @bennpeifert @goodalexander and
typical overall end point might be, for example: in a market environment reflecting an average overall reward/risk ratio, having a forecast 10% annualized PNL volatility and 2% daily 99% VaR in the book increasing overall risk proportionally to the overall risk/reward ratio
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Replying to @bennpeifert @goodalexander and
allocating risk across strategies roughly proportionally to adjusted/handicapped reward/risk ratios, but with significant downsizing of strategies that are expected to have material positive correlations with other strategies in the book
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Replying to @bennpeifert @goodalexander and
and material upsizing of strategies that are convincingly complementary to the rest of the book and/or are very likely to make money if the shit hits the muthafuckin fan
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Replying to @bennpeifert @goodalexander and
how you manage this day to day depends on how liquid the products you trade are and what kind of transaction costs you incur trading them. in pretty liquid stuff, you are continually managing towards what you see as the optimal portfolio (as discussed above), never too far away
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Replying to @bennpeifert @goodalexander and
in more illiquid markets (long term rates etc) you might be thinking about every day what are the handful of trades you can do that best transform your risk profile in the direction of where you want to be
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Replying to @bennpeifert @goodalexander and
mechanical stop losses generally are inappropriate here - in a dislocations oriented strategy, pnl tends to be mean reverting, and expected returns highest after a drawdown, as long as risk is well controlled (not short convexity)
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Replying to @bennpeifert @goodalexander and
that doesnt mean one doesn't carefully evaluate what is happening in a drawdown - you might be wrong or missing something important and the right thing to do might be to cut because reward/risk isnt as good as you thought! but sometimes, a dislocation just got bigger
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Replying to @bennpeifert @goodalexander and
reading the above in the morning, it wasnt as organized as id like and threading was poor, apologies
7 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
The threading was that of a man in his second triple IPA
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @goodalexander and
yeah my threading is not strong even when sober and the result there was pretty rough
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