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@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. BisphamGreen‏ @BisphamGreen 15 Nov 2021

      BisphamGreen Retweeted (((The Daily Shot)))

      If you do something similar on bonds it will look the same. The next decade, perhaps 2 decades, are going to be awful for asset returns. This will have profound implications for the industryhttps://twitter.com/SoberLook/status/1460190968683147273 …

      BisphamGreen added,

      (((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook
      Current valuations point to a “lost decade” in stocks. Source: @ISABELNET_SA, @GoldmanSachs pic.twitter.com/xfD9G1rcfZ
      6 replies 5 retweets 40 likes
    2. Joe Weisenthal‏ @TheStalwart 15 Nov 2021
      Replying to @BisphamGreen @EnriqueDiazAlva

      is this methodology better than the other "asset are priced for terrible returns" methodology that I've been hearing for my entire career?

      11 replies 0 retweets 58 likes
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 15 Nov 2021
      Replying to @TheStalwart @BisphamGreen @EnriqueDiazAlva

      The chart above is particularly bad, since it plots 1 point per month for something which is averaged over ten years, giving a false sense of how strong the correlation is. The correct version of the plot should only have seven data points.

      6 replies 0 retweets 87 likes
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 15 Nov 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @TheStalwart and

      Chart on the left - seven data points, statistically insignificant correlation. Chart on the right - each data point replicated 100 times with some noise, statistically significant (but very fake) correlation.pic.twitter.com/etlvFmk4ty

      7 replies 7 retweets 96 likes
    5. Macro Risk Analyst‏ @VKMacro 15 Nov 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @TheStalwart and

      How do you choose which 7 data points?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. BlankName‏ @ExpReturns 15 Nov 2021
      Replying to @VKMacro @macrocephalopod and

      Non-overlapping periods.

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
    7. BlankName‏ @ExpReturns 15 Nov 2021
      Replying to @ExpReturns @VKMacro and

      For example, you can do 10 instances of non-overlapping decades, find the relationship on those 10 instances and take average. For example, one instance would 1950-1960-1970-1980-1990-2000-2010-2020 and the other instance would be 1949-1959-1969-1979-1989-1999-2009-2019.

      2 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 15 Nov 2021
      Replying to @ExpReturns @VKMacro and

      👆

      9:51 AM - 15 Nov 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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