There's a massive gap between how optimization in finance (particularly portfolio optimizers) are viewed by non-experts, and how they are used by practitioners. That gap is responsible for some false beliefs, along the lines of "optimization never works" or ...
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"portfolio optimizers always maximize errors" or "optimizers are for dweebs". Wrong! I'll try to explain why. The non-expert view of portfolio optimizers is something like - you have a vector of alphas (expected returns), a covariance matrix, a vector of costs (e.g. spread and
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impact), current position x0, and some constraints, and you run a quadratic optimization to find a vector of positions "x" which maximises alpha * x - x' * covariance * x - spread * abs(x - x0) - slippage If you do this naively you will get bad results!
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A better approach, the one I use, is to start with a heuristic solution that you know works (i.e. you would make money with it). Then write down an optimization problem that gives you the same result. You're now in a good place because you have a set of parameters for the
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Replying to @macrocephalopod
I tell the jr data scientists something similar to this to get them thinking more creatively-- instead of starting with some "predictive model," try to write down a math equation that seems to solve the problem, then see how it relates to OLS, logit, etc.
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Replying to @ryxcommar @macrocephalopod
the parallel being that starting with the cookie cutter prepackaged approach like import from sklearn or a souped up CAPM is not as good a way to think about problems than starting with an insight you came up with.
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Yup totally agree. You start with the insight, then you add all the data science/optimization shit to try and improve the insight. But if that’s a car crash, you still have the insight.
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