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macrocephalopod
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@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

      There's a massive gap between how optimization in finance (particularly portfolio optimizers) are viewed by non-experts, and how they are used by practitioners. That gap is responsible for some false beliefs, along the lines of "optimization never works" or ...

      15 replies 53 retweets 390 likes
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    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

      "portfolio optimizers always maximize errors" or "optimizers are for dweebs". Wrong! I'll try to explain why. The non-expert view of portfolio optimizers is something like - you have a vector of alphas (expected returns), a covariance matrix, a vector of costs (e.g. spread and

      2 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
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    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

      impact), current position x0, and some constraints, and you run a quadratic optimization to find a vector of positions "x" which maximises alpha * x - x' * covariance * x - spread * abs(x - x0) - slippage If you do this naively you will get bad results!

      1 reply 1 retweet 35 likes
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    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

      A better approach, the one I use, is to start with a heuristic solution that you know works (i.e. you would make money with it). Then write down an optimization problem that gives you the same result. You're now in a good place because you have a set of parameters for the

      2 replies 0 retweets 41 likes
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    5. Senior KPI Chaser‏ @ryxcommar 13 Nov 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      I tell the jr data scientists something similar to this to get them thinking more creatively-- instead of starting with some "predictive model," try to write down a math equation that seems to solve the problem, then see how it relates to OLS, logit, etc.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Senior KPI Chaser‏ @ryxcommar 13 Nov 2021
      Replying to @ryxcommar @macrocephalopod

      the parallel being that starting with the cookie cutter prepackaged approach like import from sklearn or a souped up CAPM is not as good a way to think about problems than starting with an insight you came up with.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021
      Replying to @ryxcommar

      Yup totally agree. You start with the insight, then you add all the data science/optimization shit to try and improve the insight. But if that’s a car crash, you still have the insight.

      6:36 AM - 13 Nov 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • The Fat Tail Senior KPI Chaser
      0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes

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