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macrocephalopod
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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

      There's a massive gap between how optimization in finance (particularly portfolio optimizers) are viewed by non-experts, and how they are used by practitioners. That gap is responsible for some false beliefs, along the lines of "optimization never works" or ...

      15 replies 53 retweets 390 likes
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    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

      "portfolio optimizers always maximize errors" or "optimizers are for dweebs". Wrong! I'll try to explain why. The non-expert view of portfolio optimizers is something like - you have a vector of alphas (expected returns), a covariance matrix, a vector of costs (e.g. spread and

      2 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
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    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

      impact), current position x0, and some constraints, and you run a quadratic optimization to find a vector of positions "x" which maximises alpha * x - x' * covariance * x - spread * abs(x - x0) - slippage If you do this naively you will get bad results!

      1 reply 1 retweet 35 likes
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    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

      A better approach, the one I use, is to start with a heuristic solution that you know works (i.e. you would make money with it). Then write down an optimization problem that gives you the same result. You're now in a good place because you have a set of parameters for the

      2 replies 0 retweets 41 likes
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    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

      optimizer that definitely give a good result, and you can start making changes to the optimizer to try and improve it. One thing optimizers are good at is finding new solutions that are close to existing solutions, but satisfy extra constraints. That means you can change

      2 replies 0 retweets 39 likes
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    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

      a parameter, and be sure that the constraints will still be satisfied. That's not generally true if you start modifying a heuristic algorithm - changing one component normally requires changes elsewhere as well.

      1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
      Show this thread
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

      That's all very vague so let me give an example. You have a vector of signal values "s". Set target positions to be proportional to (s - mean(s)) / sum(abs(s - mean(s))) This has zero net exposure and constant gross book size.

      6:14 AM - 13 Nov 2021
      • 19 Likes
      • Voerch 𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 metaphaneron Chow - force de frappe enjoyer 🥂 MCccc Speculator Arbitrary Trash pickreport
      2 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

          macrocephalopod Retweeted macrocephalopod

          You then apply some buffering to it, as described in this earlier thread, to determined what trades you should do. This is the heuristic solution. Note that after the buffering it no long has zero net exposure.https://twitter.com/macrocephalopod/status/1373216917058682881?s=20 …

          macrocephalopod added,

          macrocephalopod @macrocephalopod
          People are saying I am not posting enough finance content. FINE. Once you have decent alphas a lot of the skill in running a systematic strategy is reducing turnover. Alpha is unknown but trading costs are certain. Keep trading to the minimum needed to monetise your alpha.
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
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        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

          The quadratic optimization problem that gives this result has a linear term proportional to "s - mean(s)", a diagonal covariance matrix, a risk aversion which is proportional to sum(abs(s - mean(s))) and a simple linear cost term proportional to abs(x - x0)

          2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
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        4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

          The simplest enhancement is to add a zero net exposure constraint, or a quadratic penalty on the total net exposure. That gets you all the benefit of trade buffering but also maintains close to zero net exposure - an instant win.

          1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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        5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

          Another direction of research could look at varying the risk aversion parameter while introducing a maximum book size constraint. That will put more weight into the highest conviction positions, while zeroing out the low conviction positions.

          1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
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        6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

          Or you could make the linear term proportional to volatility and the quadratic term proportional to volatility^2 and get an optimizer which scales the book up and down in response to current volatility conditions (and keeps the benefit of trade buffering and zero net exposure)

          2 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
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        7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021

          There are ~unlimited ways to tweak the portfolio optimizer, each of which allows you to control one aspect of the portfolio construction and let the optimizer control the others. So have fun, and don't be scared of optimization.

          4 replies 2 retweets 33 likes
          Show this thread
        8. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Speculator‏ @TheSpeculator0 13 Nov 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          this is cross sectional yes?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Nov 2021
          Replying to @TheSpeculator0

          yes — directional harder but definitely possible

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation

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