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I think it was predictable ex ante by noting that spot gave you access to the airdrop but perps did not, so you would expect the pair to behave like a single stock + future where the spot goes ex div — normally the spot would trade down in that situation.
The spot/perp basis gave the market implied valuation of the airdrop token (with some careful adjustment for funding payments and probably a bit of risk premium)
(I completely agree that it is much easier to see all this in retrospect)
ah very neat idea to think of it as an ex-dividend! So I guess, unsurprisingly, the direction of this trade depended on your view of boba's valuation relative to the implied valuation
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