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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 11 Nov 2021

      Pssst... Don't tell anyone I told you this... But 69% of "quant trading" is Excel hooked up to TT.

      31 replies 13 retweets 298 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 11 Nov 2021
      Replying to @therobotjames

      Pssst... 95% of stochastic calculus is turning a dW^2 into a dt using Ito's Lemma. And Ito's Lemma is just (a+b)/2 >= sqrt(ab) generalized to continuous time.

      2 replies 6 retweets 70 likes
    3. Nd1( 🐊, 🐊)‏ @Nd172557208 11 Nov 2021
      Replying to @AgustinLebron3 @therobotjames

      I’ve forgotten how garch is calculated now but do vividly remember the visible emotional disappointment upon realising how it was calculated

      1 reply 1 retweet 21 likes
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Nov 2021
      Replying to @Nd172557208 @AgustinLebron3 @therobotjames

      (whisper it) garch is an ewma of squared returns with shrinkage

      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
    5. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 12 Nov 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @Nd172557208 @AgustinLebron3

      I'm an idiot, but It really is tho right?

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Nov 2021
      Replying to @therobotjames @Nd172557208 @AgustinLebron3

      yessir

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Nov 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @therobotjames and

      there is some cute (but simple) math in how you make an n-period ahead vol forecast, and some cute (annoying) math in how you jointly estimate the parameters but the model itself is dumb af

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Nov 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @therobotjames and

      also you should never jointly estimate the parameters, just plug in some sensible numbers and go

      12:39 AM - 12 Nov 2021
      • 8 Likes
      • Agustin Lebron Nd1(🐊,🐊) xjpx kevinTheTimeBandit Robert Martin Tho Do dunzo_4_parents_since_jan
      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        1. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest 12 Nov 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @therobotjames and

          tired: apparel models are dumb af wired: statistical models are dumb af

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. Robert Martin‏ @robertmartin88 12 Nov 2021
          Replying to @CryptoNymph @macrocephalopod and

          I think the key determinant here is the parameter persistence/forecastability. If you think params are persistent and forecastable then it’s prob worth trying to estimate them. But with garch MLE params aren’t very persistent

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. End of conversation

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