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A fundamental problem with "value investing" -- every valuation metric implies a growth rate (the rate that would give all stocks the same expected return). Buying a "cheap" rather than "expensive" stock is just a bet that the expensive stock won't grow into its valuation,
or more accurately that the cheap stock will beat its implied growth by more than the expensive stock. When you look at it this way it's clear that "value investing" is far from guaranteed to outperform. It's not even obvious there should be any premium at all.
Part of the reason that value has sucked over the last ~15 years is that value spreads widened, but equally if not more important is that the expensive stocks grew into, and even outperformed, their implied growth rates -- i.e. the central bet failed.
I think you covered it. The bet is probably on human behavior (despite EMHers belief in risk as sole story) -- shiny rocks are generally overpriced; ugly rocks are generally underpriced, on avg, and across long periods. Def NOT an arbitrage.
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