4) unspoken: there is no indication markets are any higher than they’d be if those punters had just bought less stock and kept it. If most options expire worthless and options dealers are profitable, then most of the premium used goes to ‘waste’ (into dealers’ pockets) which
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means there is less delta exposure held by such investor-punters than there would be had they just bought stock. 5) Punters gonna punt. 6) Dealers gonna deal.
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Replying to @bauhiniacapital
the question is really : 'is there a long term impact to flows?' and Bouchaud would argue yes.
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Replying to @nope_its_lily @bauhiniacapital
one cannot forget that order flow is a Hawkes excitatory process. the delta hedging flows of options, no matter how they get structured, influence other momentum traders to follow, which distorts market information which does net net permanently impact price
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Replying to @nope_its_lily @bauhiniacapital
this is something I've talked about (and folks like
@NotQuiteMidlife) - with the advent of fractionalization and options non-recourse leverage, it's less sensible for a less sophisticated market participant to think in terms of fundamentals and more in terms of value-at-risk3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes -
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Ha. We can call it 'regret'. In general, I purchase a stock especially to speculate by measuring my potential reward against my maximum risk, not against the fundamentals underlying it.
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Replying to @ander_hk @nope_its_lily and
For me the interesting thing about options isn’t leverage, it’s the mechanical buying as the price goes up and selling as it goes down. Sure a bunch of the premium goes directly to dealers but there are a lot of flows before that happens, and maybe those flows are important?
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Nah. Couldn't be. /s
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Getting dangerously close to agreeing with you on something so I’m gonna push back hard on the Hawkes process thing, that’s just what people use to *model* flow (and it doesn’t model it that well)
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I mean. Net net what Hawkes models is the correlation of order flow. No need to argue on specifics when we can agree, "buying causes buying"
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