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Its twitter and I wanted it on one tweet. Under reasonable starting assumptions, I'm pretty sure after 30 years you are not correct about the relative terminal wealths.
It’s easy to check if you are happy to assume lognormal returns (I messed up a bit, 30 years is not quite right, but after 25 years the lower returning portfolio has higher 25th percentile)pic.twitter.com/PSzg774SHV
I am most interested in the fact that you appear to be using Excel on an iPhone. Tell me you work in Finance... etc.
In this house we know how to party (note that I don’t have powerpoint, I’m not a b*nking an*lyst)pic.twitter.com/53DSTESkWA
I'm fine assuming lognormal returns as the generator, but because of the withdrawals, the distribution of the wealth for the investor wont be lognormal in 25 years.
We agree that without flows the 25% percentile is lower for B than for A after 25 years then. Do you think that adding fixed distributions is going to change that relationship? Why? It would be interesting to see an example.
You can also replace the .25 with RAND() and convert the annualized GEOMEAN and STDEV to daily periodicity, drag down a bunch of rows, and generate a parametrized sequence of returns. Do that across a bunch of columns and the ergodicity people yell at you for building a monte.
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