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You just retired and will live off your savings and investments. You have 2 portfolios to choose from: Portfolio A should have 8% vol and 6% geometric return Portfolio B should have 12% vol an 6.5% geometric return Which should lead to more wealth to pass to future generations?
Badly specified question, what does “lead to more wealth” mean? After 30 years B has higher mean terminal wealth but lower 25th percentile terminal wealth. If you care about risk there’s not a clear cut answer.
Its twitter and I wanted it on one tweet. Under reasonable starting assumptions, I'm pretty sure after 30 years you are not correct about the relative terminal wealths.
It’s easy to check if you are happy to assume lognormal returns (I messed up a bit, 30 years is not quite right, but after 25 years the lower returning portfolio has higher 25th percentile)pic.twitter.com/PSzg774SHV
finance twitter evolving to do the equivalent of normie viral twitter math problems with intentionally unclear order of operations at play. Impressive.pic.twitter.com/9Or6yJ4FqW
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