I love the vol market. think its predictive power for other yvars needs way more exploring. think of all the variables. aggregate IV. skew. term struc. kinks. that's 1 surf. Now we can compare X_surfA, X_surfB (after normalizing). >100 dimensions probably
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so if those are xvariables, how do they relate to future rets, futureMAE, future autocorr? not just for asset 1, but the spread betw aaset 1 fut MAE and asset 2 fut MAE
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Replying to @therobotjames
when ya think about it, its all a matrix.... too bad my matrix game is rusty this ignores the positioning type bets tho. like getting paid for offering liquidity to a desperate seller
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Replying to @M1tchRosenthal @therobotjames
Why vix though? It's kinda like being a ES trader or CL... I mean sure you may be able to squeeze out some alpha, but you're fighting with thousands, if not millions of people. Think you'd have more success looking at structuring baskets for dispersion or correlation trades?
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Replying to @saanglee @therobotjames
yeah wasnt thinking vix. thematic etfs like EM, KRE, anything optionable and liquid, then playing spreads maybe. could target niche products too. dispersion sounds cool but can retail play? like <8k
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Replying to @M1tchRosenthal @therobotjames
Not sure what your career goals/plans are and I'm not saying this to rub you the wrong way... But gotta start off and cut your teeth on an institutional desk.
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I'd say don't focus on what you can do with 8k right now; and focus what you would do if/when you got allocated 50mil on a desk.
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Replying to @saanglee @therobotjames
1/2 reminds me that sometimes I need to dream bigger. Honestly still debating the tradeoffs.
- other people's money means more capital and sophistication and can get paid for "execution premium"; but heavy stress, and they can outright ban you from cool strats you dig2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes -
A jr analyst on an institutional desk will learn in six months what would take you three years of messing around with data on your own. Working on a desk for five years is the perfect preparation for PA trading, if you are still interested in doing that.
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“They might not let me trade the weird illiquid strategies I come up with” — that’s actually a good thing because those strategies are not anywhere near as good as your backtest says they are.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @M1tchRosenthal and
Worrying about losing other peoples money as a jr analyst is an extremely beta move — 1. You won’t get enough leeway to do serious damage anyway 2. The investors are paying you to take risk. Losing money is fine. Being stupid or risk averse isn’t.
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I understand now. Really appreciate you explaining the landscape like this.
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