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macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 18 Aug 2021

      I thought about power perpetuals a bit more and I really like the design. If price of the underlying goes S to S’ and back to S, price of the power perp also round-trips (unlike a leveraged token, which has a lower price in this scenario because it rebalances to higher leverage)

      4 replies 19 retweets 132 likes
      Show this thread
    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 18 Aug 2021

      Obviously that advantage needs to be paid for, and it’s paid for in the premium/funding rate that longs pay to shorts. Some simple math shows how to interpret the funding rate.

      1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
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    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 18 Aug 2021

      If the underlying returns R, then the squared power perp returns 2R + R^2 (in price terms, ignoring funding). We can compare that to a 2x leveraged position in perpetuals. We want to equate the _expected_ returns of the power perp and 2x levered perp to avoid risk-neutral arb,

      1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
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    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 18 Aug 2021

      So get 2R + R^2 - F’ = 2R - 2F where F’ is the funding on the power perp and F is the funding on the perp. Taking expectations gives σ^2 - F’ = -2F which can be rearranged in two interesting ways,

      3 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
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    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 18 Aug 2021

      1. F’ = 2F + σ^2 so the funding on the power perp is at least 2x the funding on the perp, and typically much more. Plugging in some realistic numbers I would expect a funding rate of 0.2-0.4% per day for the power perp — that’s huge!

      2 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
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    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 18 Aug 2021

      2. σ^2 = F’ - 2F, this is more interesting since both F and F’ are observable and you can use them to derive an at-the-money implied vol for the underlying. Could use this in a yield strategy (sell power perps and hedge) or to do vol arb of power perps vs options.

      2 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
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    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 18 Aug 2021

      I think you could go further — the higher order power perps depend on R^3, R^4 etc and I haven’t bothered to do the math but I’m pretty sure you could get an implied skewness/kurtosis from their traded prices which gives you most of a vol surface.

      2 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
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      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 18 Aug 2021

      It’s be cool if an exchange listed these and they became popular, it seems like a much more straightforward way to get leverage and volatility exposure than options.

      3:49 PM - 18 Aug 2021
      • 28 Likes
      • SwissQuant 🇨🇭🇪🇺 🇩🇪 🇺🇦 Bitcoinman Sachs Allison Green² soph Himanshu Gupta 3tard Cap Anton Cheng Rachel
      2 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 18 Aug 2021

          cc @_Dave__White_ @andrewjleone @danrobinson

          2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 18 Aug 2021

          Someone should definitely list these because I can almost guarantee they will trade at negative implied vols in a big selloff and it will be really fun to come in and scoop them up cheap vs a 2x short in perpetuals.

          2 replies 1 retweet 40 likes
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        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. SqueezeMetrics‏ @SqueezeMetrics 18 Aug 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          I am perpetually amazed that it is so hard to trade volatility, when so many people want to trade volatility.

          1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
        3. ekri‏ @ekrii3 18 Aug 2021
          Replying to @SqueezeMetrics @macrocephalopod

          Imagine a day where vol trading becomes so pervasive in finance etc to the extent that the underlying doesn't even budge anymore because no one is trading it they're all just punting vol ignoring effects of hedging ofc still a funny thought

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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