Been thinking about "easy mode" games a bit. In some competitive fields there is a period before many have figured out how to play, where people even doing really basic analysis can win big with little effort.
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Most people in 2012 didn't realize that you can forecast elections quite accurately by aggregating lots of small polls together and doing a big Monte Carlo simulation. Pundits and talking heads got much more respect than quant models.
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Nate Silver was able to build a reputation as a genius election forecaster by doing relatively simple analysis that most people weren't doing. He was playing on "easy mode". Now that kind of analysis is table stakes.
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There was an interview with
@mgnr_io on@choffstein's podcast where he talked about playing an Australian lottery where the numbers weren't random, but were based on soccer matches. If you looked up the odds beforehand you could play the lottery on "easy mode" with a big edge.Show this thread -
Playing on easy mode isn't a bad thing! If you're trading, you want to find as many easy mode games as possible, because that's much simpler and more profitable than trying to get an edge in a very competitive game.
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Lots of people who were trading prop crypto from 2018 to May/June this year were playing on easy mode. Something changed recently and it's now competitive - a fact which a lot of people currently plowing money and effort into crypto trading systems are about to find out.
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this is prob obvious but how would you apply a monte carlo here? simulate the results based on observed regional distributions, then see how often youd see a spurious relationship? sounds awesome
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You know the expected value and sampling variation in each state from the poll results. Add some variables for correlated errors between states and demographics. Simulate the election ten thousand times and look at the results of your simulated elections to get a prediction.
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