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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 30 Jul 2021

      I have this kind of crappy model for new cases that uses high frequency case data with a seasonal adjustment to predict where smoothed new cases will be in three days. Today is the first time for over a week that it predicts cases starting to rise (in the UK)pic.twitter.com/dYdudZSl7o

      4 replies 2 retweets 44 likes
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    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 30 Jul 2021

      Basically new cases on Wed and Thu were higher than you would expect, even accounting for the fact that Wed/Thu normally see a higher-than-average number of new cases due to reporting effects, which indicates a changing trend.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 30 Jul 2021

      But also - it's clearly a v noisy prediction! Completely missed the shape of the recent peak for example. So this could just be noise and maybe cases will continue declining 🤷‍♀️

      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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    4. brrrzooka‏ @brrrzooka 30 Jul 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      Initial spike from the Euro then another uptick as the remaining restrictions are lifted after that?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 30 Jul 2021
      Replying to @brrrzooka

      I hear a lot about the Euros affect which probably contributed, although my suspicion is that school holidays are a bigger factor (and now reopening). Probably a bit of all three tbh.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. brrrzooka‏ @brrrzooka 30 Jul 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      Yeah could be a lot of factors and depends on activity in areas with higher/lower levels of vaccination too. I'm not as interested in the trend of cases anymore though since vaccinated people can test positive but it doesn't lead to higher hospitalization like it used to

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 30 Jul 2021
      Replying to @brrrzooka

      Completely agree. But empirically a lot of people still care about case numbers and it drives the narrative, so good to be aware of.

      6:31 AM - 30 Jul 2021
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        1. brrrzooka‏ @brrrzooka 30 Jul 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          Yeah, though I think we need to start weaning people away from that narrative. That's not say case numbers aren't still important to consider, just that they aren't as worrying as they were before

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