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Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

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    1. Robert Martin‏ @robertmartin88 17 Jul 2021

      It seems to me that there's a deep relationship between the sticky strike vs sticky delta assumptions (in vol surface modelling) and Bayesian updating. A smile implies a probability distribution. So when spot moves, does your pdf stay the same (sticky strike) ...

      3 replies 5 retweets 51 likes
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    2. Robert Martin‏ @robertmartin88 17 Jul 2021

      or re-centre (sticky delta)? In reality it will be somewhere in between. The new spot price is a datapoint with which you can update your "prior" probability distribution. So the degree of delta-stickiness is related to how important you think the new spot price is.

      3 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
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    3. Robert Martin‏ @robertmartin88 17 Jul 2021

      @volmagorov what do you think? I'm not sure this is yet a practical observation, but it seems to be a fairly interesting philosophical link.

      4 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 17 Jul 2021
      Replying to @robertmartin88 @volmagorov

      I’m not an options guy but I thought this debate was resolved nearly 100% in favour of sticky delta? Most places model the smile as a function of moneyness so vol deltas on a price move are smaller.

      7:42 AM - 17 Jul 2021
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      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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        2. Robert Martin‏ @robertmartin88 17 Jul 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @volmagorov

          From the options dudes i've been speaking to, there is near-unanimous agreement that sticky strike is wrong but not everyone agrees that pure sticky delta is right.

          3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Robert Martin‏ @robertmartin88 17 Jul 2021
          Replying to @robertmartin88 @macrocephalopod @volmagorov

          I think the truth is much closer to sticky delta – but my point is that it's this "bayesian updating" aspect that determines which is correct. e.g if you think the new spot price has zero information, then sticky strike is correct

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Darin Tuttle, CFA‏ @Darin_T80 17 Jul 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @robertmartin88 @volmagorov

          @EmanuelDerman

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