It seems to me that there's a deep relationship between the sticky strike vs sticky delta assumptions (in vol surface modelling) and Bayesian updating. A smile implies a probability distribution. So when spot moves, does your pdf stay the same (sticky strike) ...
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From the options dudes i've been speaking to, there is near-unanimous agreement that sticky strike is wrong but not everyone agrees that pure sticky delta is right.
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I think the truth is much closer to sticky delta – but my point is that it's this "bayesian updating" aspect that determines which is correct. e.g if you think the new spot price has zero information, then sticky strike is correct
End of conversation
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