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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Jul 2021

If you're sharp-eyed you might notice that I said I made ~10% but the chart above only shows a ~7% gain. The other ~3% came from a stupid mistake.

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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Jul 2021

macrocephalopod Retweeted macrocephalopod

Around the first week of May I decided to "reach for yield". Doge was rallying and I noticed that I could sell DOGE/USD perpetuals and earn ~3x the yield that I could on a BTC/USD perpetual, so I allocated a small portion of the portfolio to thathttps://twitter.com/macrocephalopod/status/1391137796979560450?s=20 …

macrocephalopod added,

macrocephalopod @macrocephalopod

Replying to @Ivan_Vesely_ @goodalexander @choffstein

Noted virgin @choffstein was selling BTC perps for a tiny 30% yield, real chads are crushing Doge for 60-90% average yields.

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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Jul 2021

A bit more than a week later was May 19, a huge crypto sell off. My DOGE/USD future was auto-deleveraged to close out a levered long, leaving me naked long DOGE in a falling market. Not good!

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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Jul 2021

I was in a meeting when I was notified and it was half an hour before I could trade out of the spot position. I was incredibly lucky - my futures buy nearly bottom ticked the market at ~0.2 and I closed out the spot at ~0.31 for a +50% profit (about +3% of my total equity)pic.twitter.com/GYF1b4gkez

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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Jul 2021

I removed that the pnl from that trade from the chart above - here's what it looks like if I leave it in. Taking a ~6% basis position in a memecoin where I knew there was high risk of auto-deleveraging was a bit stupid, and I was lucky it worked outpic.twitter.com/XbzXkQ9dkV

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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Jul 2021

I made a bunch of other dumb mistakes too, like sizing the spot/futures legs incorrectly to begin with, occasionally trading the wrong contract and needing to trade out, and messing up a currency conversion once. Fortunately none of them cost me more than a few bps.

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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Jul 2021

By far the most time consuming thing was doing my pnl each day, so I'd definitely look for a way to automate that in the future. I also bought a subscription to Skew Analytics which was helpful, though probably not strictly necessary.

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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Jul 2021

Some other helpful resources - FTX Premiums https://ftxpremiums.com/ for tracking basis across multiple coins on FTX

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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Jul 2021

Binance Premiums https://binancepremiums.com/ (by @robertmartin88, you should follow him) which was useful for tracking the same thing on Binance.

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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Jul 2021

Was also v helpful to discuss ideas and implementations with @therobotjames @choffstein and @drewg__

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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Jul 2021

macrocephalopod Retweeted Joe Weisenthal

I've closed out all the positions now because basis came down to ~5% on most exchanges and I have better ways to use the cash - but nice to know that if the basis comes back again, I'm ready to get back into the Bitcoin free money tradehttps://twitter.com/thestalwart/status/1407410049874595840 …

macrocephalopod added,

Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart

The Bitcoin free money trade is gone. No more profits in buying spot and shorting the futures. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-22/bitcoin-s-money-printing-machine-breaks-down-as-futures-collapse?sref=vuYGislZ … via @VildanaHajric and @kgreifeld pic.twitter.com/7gdFIbkuUH

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11:52 AM - 1 Jul 2021

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1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Jul 2021
  macrocephalopod Retweeted
  
  Here’s @LumberTrading explaining how to do this for even fatter margins in an illiquid as shit market https://twitter.com/LumberTrading/status/1410655494746697729 …
  
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