Some stats -- daily volatility was about 0.3%, Sharpe ratio was 4.7 and maximum drawdown was ~1.2%, which occured in the first two weeks as the basis rallied very shortly after I entered the trade.
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If you're sharp-eyed you might notice that I said I made ~10% but the chart above only shows a ~7% gain. The other ~3% came from a stupid mistake.
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macrocephalopod Retweeted macrocephalopod
Around the first week of May I decided to "reach for yield". Doge was rallying and I noticed that I could sell DOGE/USD perpetuals and earn ~3x the yield that I could on a BTC/USD perpetual, so I allocated a small portion of the portfolio to thathttps://twitter.com/macrocephalopod/status/1391137796979560450?s=20 …
macrocephalopod added,
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A bit more than a week later was May 19, a huge crypto sell off. My DOGE/USD future was auto-deleveraged to close out a levered long, leaving me naked long DOGE in a falling market. Not good!
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I was in a meeting when I was notified and it was half an hour before I could trade out of the spot position. I was incredibly lucky - my futures buy nearly bottom ticked the market at ~0.2 and I closed out the spot at ~0.31 for a +50% profit (about +3% of my total equity)pic.twitter.com/GYF1b4gkez
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I removed that the pnl from that trade from the chart above - here's what it looks like if I leave it in. Taking a ~6% basis position in a memecoin where I knew there was high risk of auto-deleveraging was a bit stupid, and I was lucky it worked outpic.twitter.com/XbzXkQ9dkV
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I made a bunch of other dumb mistakes too, like sizing the spot/futures legs incorrectly to begin with, occasionally trading the wrong contract and needing to trade out, and messing up a currency conversion once. Fortunately none of them cost me more than a few bps.
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By far the most time consuming thing was doing my pnl each day, so I'd definitely look for a way to automate that in the future. I also bought a subscription to Skew Analytics which was helpful, though probably not strictly necessary.
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Some other helpful resources - FTX Premiums https://ftxpremiums.com/ for tracking basis across multiple coins on FTX
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Binance Premiums https://binancepremiums.com/ (by
@robertmartin88, you should follow him) which was useful for tracking the same thing on Binance.1 reply 0 retweets 25 likesShow this thread
Was also v helpful to discuss ideas and implementations with @therobotjames @choffstein and @drewg__
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macrocephalopod Retweeted Joe Weisenthal
I've closed out all the positions now because basis came down to ~5% on most exchanges and I have better ways to use the cash - but nice to know that if the basis comes back again, I'm ready to get back into the Bitcoin free money tradehttps://twitter.com/thestalwart/status/1407410049874595840 …
macrocephalopod added,
Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwartThe Bitcoin free money trade is gone. No more profits in buying spot and shorting the futures. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-22/bitcoin-s-money-printing-machine-breaks-down-as-futures-collapse?sref=vuYGislZ … via@VildanaHajric and@kgreifeld pic.twitter.com/7gdFIbkuUHShow this thread4 replies 0 retweets 52 likesShow this thread -
macrocephalopod Retweeted
Here’s
@LumberTrading explaining how to do this for even fatter margins in an illiquid as shit market https://twitter.com/LumberTrading/status/1410655494746697729 …macrocephalopod added,
This Tweet is unavailable.3 replies 1 retweet 22 likesShow this thread
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