Honestly seems like a really convoluted approach that doesn’t really even come close to answering the original question!
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Ok so basically you’ve got a bit of intraday correlation to play with, should you go and punt the qto vs spot (and probably a bit of counterparty/exchange risk as well)?
Yeah long bitmex perpetuals/short ftx perpetuals is a way to play the realized covariance (in practice it seems to be priced quite accurately in the sense that there is no persistent benefit to being long or short the spread)
