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macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Mark Gutman‏ @MarkGutman9 26 May 2021

      Wanna hear a counterintuitive but well known secret? Every asset trades at a price such that the expected return is the risk-free rate. If you don’t believe it, try to find someone that will offer you more than the risk free rate. You won’t. Hint: ask for a forward price

      23 replies 1 retweet 56 likes
      Show this thread
    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 26 May 2021
      Replying to @MarkGutman9

      This is the pure expectations hypothesis, and it is very not true!

      3 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 26 May 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @MarkGutman9

      “A long spot/short forward portfolio earns the risk free rate” is true, but very different from “a long spot position earns the risk free rate”.

      3 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
    4. Mark Gutman‏ @MarkGutman9 26 May 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      Yes. Completely agree with that. I didn’t say the latter, though.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Adam Goldstein‏ @goldstein_aa 26 May 2021
      Replying to @MarkGutman9 @macrocephalopod

      Sure sounded like you said the latter!

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Mark Gutman‏ @MarkGutman9 26 May 2021
      Replying to @goldstein_aa @macrocephalopod

      Yes, but I didn’t

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 26 May 2021
      Replying to @MarkGutman9 @goldstein_aa

      Ok, you said that the long spot position is priced to earn the risk-free rate *in expectation* which is different from saying that it earns the risk-free rate. Is that right?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Mark Gutman‏ @MarkGutman9 26 May 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @goldstein_aa

      Something like that. But i was being a bit cheeky and you understood what I meant I’m sure

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 26 May 2021
      Replying to @MarkGutman9 @goldstein_aa

      I actually didn’t and I would love to know what you really meant, because st the moment I’m confused about why someone like you is saying something that seems obviously wrong ;)

      2:26 PM - 26 May 2021
      • 6 Likes
      • Matt Hollerbach Mark Gutman ddubs Booze Breath Gustavo Adam Goldstein
      3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        1. Gustavo‏ @TenaciousGE 26 May 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @MarkGutman9

          pic.twitter.com/gBY1Mg6UcD

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. Adam Goldstein‏ @goldstein_aa 26 May 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @MarkGutman9

          Adam Goldstein Retweeted Adam Goldstein

          I have a feeling he's sorry he tweeted it by now! :-)https://twitter.com/goldstein_aa/status/1397663323450118145 …

          Adam Goldstein added,

          Adam Goldstein @goldstein_aa
          Replying to @MarkGutman9
          I'm shocked to see someone with the background on your twitter bio making a statement like this. A forward trading at a risk-free premium relative to the underlying spot price, minus the cost of carry, is *not* the same as the underlying trading such that E{R} = risk-free rate.
          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 26 May 2021
          Replying to @goldstein_aa @macrocephalopod @MarkGutman9

          I interpreted Mark as saying what you guys are saying... but in a casual provocative way. ❤️

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Mark Gutman‏ @MarkGutman9 26 May 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @goldstein_aa

          Ok. We are willing to exchange one asset for another only when they are of equivalent value (otherwise we wouldn’t do it). That means that we expect the same [risk adjusted] return - ie on average we expect the same return from either asset. Cont.

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Mark Gutman‏ @MarkGutman9 26 May 2021
          Replying to @MarkGutman9 @macrocephalopod @goldstein_aa

          We obviously have ‘views’ or ‘expectations’ when we do the trade. But those are unique to us. The other side has different views. And both meet when both assets exchanged have the same expected return. And that is the rfr because you can always express the trade in cash value

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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