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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
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@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Mark Gutman‏ @MarkGutman9 26 May 2021

      Wanna hear a counterintuitive but well known secret? Every asset trades at a price such that the expected return is the risk-free rate. If you don’t believe it, try to find someone that will offer you more than the risk free rate. You won’t. Hint: ask for a forward price

      23 replies 1 retweet 56 likes
      Show this thread
    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 26 May 2021
      Replying to @MarkGutman9

      This is the pure expectations hypothesis, and it is very not true!

      3 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 26 May 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @MarkGutman9

      “A long spot/short forward portfolio earns the risk free rate” is true, but very different from “a long spot position earns the risk free rate”.

      3 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
    4. Mark Gutman‏ @MarkGutman9 26 May 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      Yes. Completely agree with that. I didn’t say the latter, though.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Adam Goldstein‏ @goldstein_aa 26 May 2021
      Replying to @MarkGutman9 @macrocephalopod

      Sure sounded like you said the latter!

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Mark Gutman‏ @MarkGutman9 26 May 2021
      Replying to @goldstein_aa @macrocephalopod

      Yes, but I didn’t

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 26 May 2021
      Replying to @MarkGutman9 @goldstein_aa

      Ok, you said that the long spot position is priced to earn the risk-free rate *in expectation* which is different from saying that it earns the risk-free rate. Is that right?

      2:22 PM - 26 May 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Robert Martin
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        1. Mark Gutman‏ @MarkGutman9 26 May 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @goldstein_aa

          Something like that. But i was being a bit cheeky and you understood what I meant I’m sure

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 26 May 2021
          Replying to @MarkGutman9 @goldstein_aa

          I actually didn’t and I would love to know what you really meant, because st the moment I’m confused about why someone like you is saying something that seems obviously wrong ;)

          3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. Show replies

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