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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 May 2021

      Look I’m not an equity guy or a credit guy, but these passages, from latest @matt_levine newsletter, strike me as kind of obviously wrong.pic.twitter.com/RaaoXuC36b

      3 replies 2 retweets 19 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Rich Gluck‏ @TheMrktCyclist 12 May 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @matt_levine

      There is a price for the debt that implies the equity is worthless. If the debt is below par and the case is about to be resolved, that could imply the equity value is zero. I was a debt PM at equity firms; the mindsets of debt & equity investors are as Matt says, different

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 May 2021
      Replying to @TheMrktCyclist @matt_levine

      All I mean is, say the outcomes are 60% recovery, 90% recovery and 120% recovery each with 1/3 chance. Then the debt will trade at 83 (probably a bit less) but the equity will be non zero, even though there is a 2/3 chance that shareholders will be wiped out.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 May 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @TheMrktCyclist @matt_levine

      Obviously if there imore certainty about the outcomes then the debt can imply a zero equity value, but that depends on the range of outcomes and their likelihoods, you can’t imply it from the price of debt alone.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 May 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @TheMrktCyclist @matt_levine

      I think this is what you are getting at with “the case is about to be resolved”?

      1:39 PM - 12 May 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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