Tips breakevens are driven by liquidity and hedging effects more than inflation expectations (which is why they are highly correlated to anything growthy eg stocks).
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Replying to @goodalexander
Do you think dividend futures prices are dividend expectations?
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @goodalexander
if they aren’t then there would be a pretty easy arb… maybe there is an easy arb idk but there’s a difference between what the price is or represents and the mechanisms by which the market arrives at that price
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Replying to @mpp75214 @goodalexander
They are nowhere near dividend expectations (in fact the curve is almost always backwardated whereas dividend expectations are almost always upward sloping). Try to construct the arb and you will soon figure out why there isn't one.
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Replying to @goodalexander @mpp75214
Yeah, some aggregate opinion of “where does the market think dividends will be” as opposed to “what are they willing to pay for a future on those dividends”.
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Same reason that past realised vol is a better predictor of future realised vol than option implied vols etc.
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