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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 May 2021
      Replying to @goodalexander

      Tips breakevens are driven by liquidity and hedging effects more than inflation expectations (which is why they are highly correlated to anything growthy eg stocks).

      3 replies 3 retweets 40 likes
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    5. DC‏ @AnalystDC 10 May 2021
      Replying to @sajidnizami @goodalexander @macrocephalopod

      Yeah looking at ETFs introduces all kinds of distortions... for example TLT is actually around 18 years of duration usually (vs ZROZ around 27 years). Looking at real inflation swaps and breakevens is much more accurate than trying to reconstruct them from ETFs imo

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 May 2021
      Replying to @goodalexander @AnalystDC @sajidnizami

      It's the opposite to that. The ETFs are better at reflecting *prices* than the constituents (e.g. compare price to NAV for corp bond funds in Mar 2020) so the liquidity distortions are even bigger if you are looking at the ETF vs the underlying.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 May 2021
      Replying to @goodalexander @AnalystDC @sajidnizami

      That is exactly what I just said! The ETF reflects the tradable price, the constituent quotes (and hence the ETF nav) are just made up. But the key thing is that the *price* does not reflect the *expectations* especially when there are weird technical effects.

      2:42 PM - 10 May 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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