Tips breakevens are driven by liquidity and hedging effects more than inflation expectations (which is why they are highly correlated to anything growthy eg stocks).
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Yeah looking at ETFs introduces all kinds of distortions... for example TLT is actually around 18 years of duration usually (vs ZROZ around 27 years). Looking at real inflation swaps and breakevens is much more accurate than trying to reconstruct them from ETFs imo
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It's the opposite to that. The ETFs are better at reflecting *prices* than the constituents (e.g. compare price to NAV for corp bond funds in Mar 2020) so the liquidity distortions are even bigger if you are looking at the ETF vs the underlying.
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The importance of the ETF-underlying gap varies depending per ETF and over time but general rule is that if there is a weird technical effect (liquidity crisis, hedging pressure etc) you will see it in the ETF more than in the constituents, because that's what people trade.
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