Tips breakevens are driven by liquidity and hedging effects more than inflation expectations (which is why they are highly correlated to anything growthy eg stocks).
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Do you think dividend futures prices are dividend expectations?
Being less glib — my point is that pricing for literally anything reflects expectations + risk premia + technical effects, and the technical effects for breakevens are massive because tips are so illiquid compared to treasuries.
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they have liquidity discounts in crises like last year. i do not think they are very distorted when liquidity is abundant in the market
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