Thank you for this! Extremely helpful. I do believe the Expiry column for Cash-and-Carry premia is one day ahead of the actual Time to delivery displayed on Binance. This kinda skews the annualised premiums a little bit as compared to https://bitcoinfuturesinfo.com/market-share-and-futures-curve …
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Replying to @shnkrtwts
Thanks for raising this! I'll have a look and report back
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Replying to @robertmartin88
Hmm can't spot a mistake (I've added a decimal place to the days column for clarity). Perhaps they are doing USD-margined futures vs coin-margined?
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Replying to @robertmartin88
I believe the site is displaying both USD- and coin-margined futures. A and B being the inverse and linear contract, respectively. Could you please share the formula for your annualised premium calculation? I believe the site uses ((Future Price/Spot Price)-1)/(DTE/365) which -pic.twitter.com/D1d2Aq5pGY
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Replying to @shnkrtwts @robertmartin88
- is how they end up with 30.37% (A) and 31.34% (B)
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Replying to @shnkrtwts
Ah, I'm doing (future / spot)^(365/DTE) -1 I vaguely recall reading somewhere that one shouldn't use compounding for returns on a smaller than 1y period, so this might be a mistake.
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Replying to @robertmartin88
@macrocephalopod should I be using simple annualisation here or CAGR?2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @robertmartin88
Good question that doesn't actually have a simple answer! Perps are easiest. You are long spot (say BTC) and short futs. For inverse you receive funding payments in BTC so to maintain zero delta you either need to sell small amounts of BTC or sell more futures.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @robertmartin88
If you are selling spot then your exposure stays the same and you should use simple annualization. If you sell futures your exposure grows and you should use CAGR.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @robertmartin88
For linear futures you receive your funding payments in USD so by default your exposure stays the same (simple annualization) but if you used the USD to increase your position size you should use CAGR.
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For dated futures you can only guarantee positive P&L if you hold to expiry, so your compounding opportunities are limited to once/month or once/quarter. So either simple annualization, or (1+x)^12 (monthly) or (1+x)^4 (qtrly) depending on whether you compound or not.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @robertmartin88
To err on the side of caution I would just use simple annualization everywhere since it applies to every type of contract, requires the least action on the part of the trader, and is more easily understood.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @robertmartin88
The system I set up to track premiums uses simple annualization everywhere for this reason. Compounding 8 hour interest to annual is useful primarily for generating eye-popping numbers when you need to impress someone.
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