But in a big crash, these premiums invert and the shorts can end up owing the funding rate to the longs. If you’re short the fixed maturity and the premium inverts, that’s an opportunity to close at a higher return.
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Replying to @choffstein
Thinking more if there is a gap down, what’s the risk your short futures can’t be monetized because your counter-party failed and the exchange wasn’t able to close their position before they blew through their collateral?
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Replying to @EconomPic
100% a risk. This is a pretty thorough document on how these cases are handled.https://medium.com/@Austerity_Sucks/different-liquidation-models-of-platforms-in-bitcoin-futures-28480354253f …
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Replying to @choffstein @EconomPic
TL;DR: It varies by exchange. They use partial liquidations, insurance funds, designated “market makers” who agree to step into positions, and auto-deleveraging rules (close shorts).
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Replying to @choffstein
The similarities between this and 2003-2008 are fascinating...
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Replying to @choffstein
I feel like most of the tools here were around during the GFC, just with different names... waterfall structures, credit insurance, equity tranches, etc...
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Replying to @choffstein @EconomPic
At the very least you want to know the answer to the question "how big of a crash do we need before my futures shorts are at risk of liquidation even if I am only using 1x leverage"
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Your 1x leveraged short is the senior tranche but once you've blown through the equity, junior and mezz things start looking a little dicey.
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All the tranches below you, who are now long in a falling market, are doing to start trying to close out their risk asafp and pushing the market down further.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @EconomPic
I’m not sure the exchange details are available to answer those questions. But the same questions exist for any traditional exchange.
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Replying to @choffstein @EconomPic
Most exchanges only socialize losses among members, not among anyone with an account (and most futures exchanges have *much* higher margin reqs than crypto derivatives exchanges which alleviates a lot of the risk)
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