Finding it increasingly hard to get excited about markets where this kind of thing doesn't happen...pic.twitter.com/lXkF2suUkc
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Finding it increasingly hard to get excited about markets where this kind of thing doesn't happen...pic.twitter.com/lXkF2suUkc
Maybe a dumb Q: let's say that as soon as the basis hit zero, you decided to sell spot buy fut (betting that the basis would rebound). Would you have been liquidated as the basis continued going down?
Basis trades are genuinely very hard, esp trying to time reversion. I looked at silver futures basis a few months ago, normally trades slightly negative (-50bp) and had gone positive (+50bp) and thought it was an opportunity to bet on reversion, it traded to +2000bp iirc 
In a situation like this, if you are able to meet all margin calls etc until expiry and assuming nothing changes about carrying costs/ interest rates (which obv are big ifs), you will still end up pocketing the basis right?
If you see a basis trading at +50bp then what you *hope* is that it goes to zero or -ve quickly so you can take the trade off and redeploy capital elsewhere, but your backstop is to hold to expiry (ie you want to earn the spread quickly but will settle for earning it slowly)
The silver fut basis is not quite like that because it was between two fut contracts (Mar/May iirc) and there is nothing that guarantees they will converge (they will both converge to spot individually, but don’t need to converge to each other before the first one expires)
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