Finding it increasingly hard to get excited about markets where this kind of thing doesn't happen...pic.twitter.com/lXkF2suUkc
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Maybe a dumb Q: let's say that as soon as the basis hit zero, you decided to sell spot buy fut (betting that the basis would rebound). Would you have been liquidated as the basis continued going down?
Basis trades are genuinely very hard, esp trying to time reversion. I looked at silver futures basis a few months ago, normally trades slightly negative (-50bp) and had gone positive (+50bp) and thought it was an opportunity to bet on reversion, it traded to +2000bp iirc 
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In a situation like this, if you are able to meet all margin calls etc until expiry and assuming nothing changes about carrying costs/ interest rates (which obv are big ifs), you will still end up pocketing the basis right?
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If you see a basis trading at +50bp then what you *hope* is that it goes to zero or -ve quickly so you can take the trade off and redeploy capital elsewhere, but your backstop is to hold to expiry (ie you want to earn the spread quickly but will settle for earning it slowly)
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Do you think it's possible to time a RV basis trade w/o a fundamental view on a specific asset? Obv tons of opportunities in a robust multi-asset RV/carry trades... But I'm talking more about the "dude M1, M2 spread for XX is super wide right now" type of deal...
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if you don't have a fundamental view, doesn't it just become a statistical exercise? like fade the spread when it's x sigma away from the mean (or more advanced stuff like modelling the spread as some stoch process and optimising expected PnL
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