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macrocephalopod
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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

      The second point (sensitivity to assumptions) is important because you want to know if performance is extremely sensitive to e.g. latency, transaction cost, fill ratio assumptions that may be different in reality.

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

      Third point is extremely important (and tragically often neglected) because without an accurate simulator, you may as well not bother running a backtest at all (and it will uncover bugs in either your simulation or live code)

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

      Last point is important because you *really* want to know if your turnover/risk/exposure stats differ from your expectations. If you design a strategy based on a 1-2 day forecast and in simulation it holds positions for months, something is broken!

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

      There are many ways to assess quality of an alpha/signal/strategy without running a full blown backtest. For example for binary signals you can look at event studies/markouts. For continuous signals you can regress future returns on your signal, or ...

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

      ... use factor regressions or quintile/decile charts. What these have in common is they measure what you care about, i.e. how good the signal is at predicting future returns.

      2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
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    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

      Monetizing the prediction is the job of portfolio construction (where you trade off alpha vs. risk, costs and constraints).

      1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
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    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

      The backtest is just to make sure that all these parts are working together as expected. In many ways a slow backtest can be a feature, because it discourages you from running hundreds of simulations and optimizing based on the results!

      3 replies 2 retweets 30 likes
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    8. Radon-Nikodym‏ @RadonNikodym2 15 Apr 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      How would you study event based seasonality, without predominantly looking at backtest results? Say, you think that the market rallies before FOMC. It's straightforward to pick a 1d lookahead and run some statistical test, but that doesn't tell you when you should put it on.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Radon-Nikodym‏ @RadonNikodym2 15 Apr 2021
      Replying to @RadonNikodym2 @macrocephalopod

      You don't have a fundamental reason that the rally should start 1 hour vs 1 day before, but you do think there's an reason for it to happen eventually. Optimizing a backtest metric seems reasonable, because of the simplicity of the model, but I'd be interested in other opinions

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 15 Apr 2021
      Replying to @RadonNikodym2

      This is a good candidate for a walk-forward backtest. Enumerate all the seasonal-type signals you can plausibly think of (FOMC, earnings, month and quarter end etc). Define a strategy for deciding how to trade them. Each year, select which effects are ...

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 15 Apr 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @RadonNikodym2

      ... in the strategy for the next year and trade them. Recalibrate for the following year. This is closer to what you would do in live trading and thus more realistic.

      5:49 AM - 15 Apr 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 15 Apr 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @RadonNikodym2

          Importantly you can define your metrics for how you select which effects to include and how to trade them up front. Then you only need to run the backtest once.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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