Only in the first of these do you care about performance, and only then to check that the simulation passes a "good enough" bar. Using the backtest to optimize parameters is the path to overfitting.
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... in the strategy for the next year and trade them. Recalibrate for the following year. This is closer to what you would do in live trading and thus more realistic.
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Importantly you can define your metrics for how you select which effects to include and how to trade them up front. Then you only need to run the backtest once.
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I like the sentiment of this, but depending on your metrics, I would think it's pretty similar to just a static backtest. If you are investigating effects with long histories, the last year of data matters little. Looking at multiple backtest is good because it shows how the...
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...trade has evolved over time. Suppose that stocks used to consistently rally the day before earnings, but that backtest pnl has degraded over time. However, if you look at 2 days before earnings, the backtest still looks consistent. This suggests to me that the trade has ...
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