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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

      macrocephalopod Retweeted Overlevered Asset Management

      My advice here was pretty standard - profile, find bottlenecks, use caching/vectorization/numpy/numba to speed up the hot code. But even better advice is "do less backtesting" (as pointed out by @therobotjames)https://twitter.com/Overlevered_AM/status/1382201962687557638 …

      macrocephalopod added,

      Overlevered Asset Management @Overlevered_AM
      I swear that I’m going to grow old waiting for backtests to finish loading. Do any of the pros have backtesting advice as far as efficient loading times goes? @Ksidiii @goodalexander @KrisAbdelmessih @VolQuant
      2 replies 16 retweets 99 likes
      Show this thread
    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

      Backtesting is not a research tool. It belong right at the end of the process and you use it for four things - 1. Final verification of your idea 2. Sensitivity to assumptions 3. Reconciliation vs live trading 4. Non-performance stats like turnover, max net/gross exposure etc

      1 reply 8 retweets 41 likes
      Show this thread
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

      Only in the first of these do you care about performance, and only then to check that the simulation passes a "good enough" bar. Using the backtest to optimize parameters is the path to overfitting.

      2 replies 1 retweet 18 likes
      Show this thread
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

      The second point (sensitivity to assumptions) is important because you want to know if performance is extremely sensitive to e.g. latency, transaction cost, fill ratio assumptions that may be different in reality.

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
      Show this thread
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

      Third point is extremely important (and tragically often neglected) because without an accurate simulator, you may as well not bother running a backtest at all (and it will uncover bugs in either your simulation or live code)

      4:47 AM - 14 Apr 2021
      • 10 Likes
      • Stay the Curse Matt Hollerbach Saang Lee (이상선) Robot James 🤖🏖 keith - gondwana man KeepCalmSellVol Seth Levine enlightened becoming Yannick Kälber
      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

          Last point is important because you *really* want to know if your turnover/risk/exposure stats differ from your expectations. If you design a strategy based on a 1-2 day forecast and in simulation it holds positions for months, something is broken!

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

          There are many ways to assess quality of an alpha/signal/strategy without running a full blown backtest. For example for binary signals you can look at event studies/markouts. For continuous signals you can regress future returns on your signal, or ...

          1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

          ... use factor regressions or quintile/decile charts. What these have in common is they measure what you care about, i.e. how good the signal is at predicting future returns.

          2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
          Show this thread
        5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

          Monetizing the prediction is the job of portfolio construction (where you trade off alpha vs. risk, costs and constraints).

          1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
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        6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 14 Apr 2021

          The backtest is just to make sure that all these parts are working together as expected. In many ways a slow backtest can be a feature, because it discourages you from running hundreds of simulations and optimizing based on the results!

          3 replies 2 retweets 30 likes
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        7. End of conversation

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