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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Mitchell Rosenthal‏ @M1tchRosenthal 12 Apr 2021

      Have a silly Q about calc'ing yield volatility. The formula says to do stdev(X), where X=(YieldNew/YieldOld). But yield is already in % form. Why not do X = [YieldNew-YieldOld]? During a linear reg, Ive been told to measure yieldChng as (New-Old), not New/Old.pic.twitter.com/v8dVp5xO8J

      3 replies 2 retweets 20 likes
    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Apr 2021
      Replying to @M1tchRosenthal

      Yes you should take differences for yields, not ratios (this was obviously written by someone with pre-2007 “interest rates cannot be negative” brain)

      2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
    3. Corey Hoffstein  🏴‍☠️‏Verified account @choffstein 12 Apr 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @M1tchRosenthal

      This 👆 A more math-y answer is: see the "quest for invariance" https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1753788 …

      3 replies 2 retweets 16 likes
    4. Mitchell Rosenthal‏ @M1tchRosenthal 12 Apr 2021
      Replying to @choffstein @macrocephalopod

      So to find spread betw trailing 30day vol of SPY & 10yr yield: SPY: column of 30 LogRets. LogRet = ln(PriceToday/PriceYesterday). TrailVol = stdev(column) * sqrt(252). 10yr: I have a col of YieldDiffs (YieldToday-YieldYestrday). TrailVol = stdev(column)*sqrt(252). Is this close?

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
    5. Corey Hoffstein  🏴‍☠️‏Verified account @choffstein 12 Apr 2021
      Replying to @M1tchRosenthal @macrocephalopod

      Yep. Depending upon what you’re using it for, it might make sense to get an instrument that tracks the 10yr rate (e.g. 10yr govt bond index) and find the total return vol. The changing duration may be an “issue,” but it also might be important information to have.

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    6. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest 12 Apr 2021
      Replying to @choffstein @M1tchRosenthal @macrocephalopod

      yeah i am going to echo what corey said here. for a lot of things where maturity and/or duration is constant-ish price vol is definitely a better measure if observable. otherwise do yield vol but make sure you are properly translating it to price vol using the changing duration

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    7. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest 12 Apr 2021
      Replying to @NewRiverInvest @choffstein and

      for most stuff you can def just use price vol if you are working off of mkt products since most of the stuff with options rolls its holdings or has a moving CTD but if you have static holdings you have to remember that yield vol is partly a f(x) of term, sim to vega/sqrt(t) adj.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Mitchell Rosenthal‏ @M1tchRosenthal 12 Apr 2021
      Replying to @NewRiverInvest @choffstein @macrocephalopod

      I see, anywhere I can learn the equations to do this? I dont have access to prices, only constant maturity treasury yields via FRED for now. Thanks again!

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Apr 2021
      Replying to @M1tchRosenthal @NewRiverInvest @choffstein

      Set coupon = yesterday’s yield and price the bond using today’s yield with one day less to maturity, calculate the log return assuming yesterday’s price = 100 (which it always is for a bond where yield = coupon).

      2:39 PM - 12 Apr 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • Mitchell Rosenthal NRI Inc
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Apr 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @M1tchRosenthal and

          This is not 100% accurate but will be good enough for what you need. Note by “yesterday” I mean “previous good trading day” which might be multiple calendar days if there is a weekend, holiday etc.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest 12 Apr 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @M1tchRosenthal @choffstein

          #NotAfraidOfBeingServicey

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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