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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 6 Apr 2021

      This did some numbers over the weekend and was rightly mocked. Source of the claim was this chart in the FT showing an estimate of the size of Archegos' portfolio, which shows a drop of over $100 billion in March. Source of the chart is Bespoke Investment Group. https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1378368609827713030 …pic.twitter.com/ZztC6EhrGc

      1 reply 5 retweets 48 likes
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    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 6 Apr 2021

      Obviously Archegos did not lose anywhere near $110 billion - they lost something like $10-15 billion plus maybe another $7-10 billion lost by prime brokers (CS, Nomura etc). So did the FT or Bespoke fuck up?

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 6 Apr 2021

      No! Pink line on the chart shows an estimate of Archegos' portfolio size (reconstructed from bank 13-F filings) assuming *constant 5:1 leverage* The constant leverage is important as it means that portfolio size grows/shrinks very quickly even when gains/losses are modest.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 6 Apr 2021

      As an illustration assume a $100 portfolio which is levered 5:1 so has $500 of stock and $400 of debt. If the stock rises 20% you now have $600 of stock, $400 of debt and portfolio value of $200. So you have a 100% return (= 5 x 20%) but you are now only levered 3:1

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    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 6 Apr 2021

      To maintain leverage you need to buy another $400 of stock using a loan, giving a portfolio of $1000 stock and $800 of debt. If the stock rises 20% again (gains of $200) you need to buy another $800 of stock, and if it rises 20% a third time you need to buy another $1600.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 6 Apr 2021

      After three 20% rises you have increased your portfolio size from $500 to $4000 -- an increase of $3500, of which $700 was investment gains and $2800 was new purchases.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 6 Apr 2021

      Now if the stock falls 20%, your portfolio falls to $3200 (loss of $800) but it completely wipes out your equity. You need to sell the remaining $3200 of stock because you can no longer meet margin calls.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    8. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 6 Apr 2021

      On the round trip the stock was up 38.2%, you bought $3300 of stock, sold $3200, and lost your initial account balance of $100. Leverage!

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 6 Apr 2021

      The *right* way to read the FT/Bespoke chart is that there was a loss of about $22 billion (not totally accurate, but ballpark if you think Archegos lost $15 billion and banks lost $7 billion) and around $88 billion of stock sold (not far off the $85 billion estimates)

      5:32 AM - 6 Apr 2021
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      2 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
        1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 6 Apr 2021

          Any mocking should be reserved for @Fxhedgers and anyone who uncritically retweeted their 'story'. Fin!

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        2. Adam Goldstein‏ @goldstein_aa 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          I wonder if Hwang is personally liable for these losses. Is it possible banks could lose $7B due to bankruptcy of Archegos but he's still a very rich man? Amazing how skewed the risk/return was - lenders lost half of what Hwang lost in downside, but upside was almost 100% his!

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Ilari Lehti‏ @IlariLehti 6 Apr 2021
          Replying to @goldstein_aa @macrocephalopod

          That's how the huge leverage would make sense, for Hwang. Pocket part of the wins when all is rosy, let the business die when things don't go your way.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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