You don’t quite have this right! The Bespoke research assumes that that Archegos maintained a constant 5:1 leverage, ie they were leveraged 5:1 on 31st Dec and then continued to buy stock to maintain 5:1 lev as prices went up after that.
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That’s why the pink/blue lines are coincident on that’s why the pink/blue lines are coincident on 31 Dec but the pink line increases much faster (at least, that is what I believe from my convos with them — I haven’t checked the numbers)
Bespoke were very clear that they were using lagged data and that the data they provided was a theoretical upper bound on Archegos exposure derived from the 13-Fs, but this info was dropped in the FT chart, and misreported further in subsequent tweets.
