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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Dan Davies‏ @dsquareddigest 29 Mar 2021
      Replying to @pearkes @1867ben @nosunkcosts

      This is one area where the modelled capital requirement is quite a lot lower than the standardized, because if you aren't capable of getting a model approved, you arguably shouldn't be doing this kind of business at all in any size. CFDs just treated as exposure to the underlying

      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    2. George Pearkes‏ @pearkes 29 Mar 2021
      Replying to @dsquareddigest @1867ben @nosunkcosts

      so basically the capital requirement is whatever the notional is, and if you hedge via buying the stock, it's zero? no counterparty surcharge?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Dan Davies‏ @dsquareddigest 29 Mar 2021
      Replying to @pearkes @1867ben @nosunkcosts

      I have tried to avoid counterparty credit risk my whole life because it is hellish complicated but I suspect there should be some capital requirement for it here, basically because what is happening today is an utterly predictable risk.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. George Pearkes‏ @pearkes 29 Mar 2021
      Replying to @dsquareddigest @1867ben @nosunkcosts

      especially funny because the lads at GS and DB appear to have made out without any material losses versus 2 yards at Nomura and something material at CS/UBS.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Vandy, C. A.  🇺🇦 ✊🏼‏ @CAVandy 29 Mar 2021
      Replying to @pearkes @dsquareddigest and

      Vandy, C. A.  🇺🇦 ✊🏼 Retweeted macrocephalopod

      this might be only tangentially related to the question but fwiw this was helpful in understanding the mechanics, which lead me to believe the only thing out of the norm was the amount of leverage Hwang used, + insufficient/wrong hedgehttps://twitter.com/macrocephalopod/status/1376431761169788933?s=20 …

      Vandy, C. A.  🇺🇦 ✊🏼 added,

      macrocephalopod @macrocephalopod
      We’re going to hear a lot about equity total return swaps over the next couple of days but let me take a second to point out how extremely normal they are and how unsurprising it should be to find out that Archegos was using them.
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    6. Ben‏ @1867ben 29 Mar 2021
      Replying to @CAVandy @pearkes and

      Thanks. The wrong hedge would - hopefully - have shown up in their own risk measures. But wouldn’t for the PBs: they’re perfectly hedged on each side.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Vandy, C. A.  🇺🇦 ✊🏼‏ @CAVandy 29 Mar 2021
      Replying to @1867ben @pearkes and

      which is why it's a little confounding that $NMR is on the hook for up to $2B and $CS for something material as well

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 29 Mar 2021
      Replying to @CAVandy @1867ben and

      macrocephalopod Retweeted macrocephalopod

      I tagged some stuff from others onto the end which specifically talks about counterparty risk and hedges for that (though tbh it is hard to hedge your cpty risk against a private entity that doesn't explicitly issue debt, you can't buy CDS on them)https://twitter.com/macrocephalopod/status/1376529068720599042?s=20 …

      macrocephalopod added,

      macrocephalopod @macrocephalopod
      Here are some actual good takes on TRS from people who actually understand them (unlike me) https://twitter.com/saanglee/status/1376522517259513857?s=20 …
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    9. Dan Davies‏ @dsquareddigest 29 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @CAVandy and

      You deal with the counterparty risk as a prime broker by taking excess cash collateral in a separate account I think.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 29 Mar 2021
      Replying to @dsquareddigest @CAVandy and

      Yeah, and this is good for like 99.99% of cases but in the 0.01% you find you have a fuckton of wrong way risk and you're out $2bn+

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 29 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @dsquareddigest and

      My guess is, part of what went wrong at Nomura/CS is not realizing that they were one of at least 4-5 swap counterparties (and not the biggest) and as a result not holding enough collateral and not acting quickly enough when shit hit the fan

      6:52 AM - 29 Mar 2021
      • 6 Likes
      • FIFO Bruce Josh Giersch 🏳️‍🌈 Dan Davies Vandy, C. A. 🇺🇦✊🏼 George Pearkes
      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Vandy, C. A.  🇺🇦 ✊🏼‏ @CAVandy 29 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @dsquareddigest and

          I like the idea that "the Federation" at GS (the divisions that watch over risk, compliance etc) may have saved the day by writing in higher margin requirements and more closely monitoring when/if ISDA clauses were triggered nerds rule! = a good look

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Dan Davies‏ @dsquareddigest 29 Mar 2021
          Replying to @CAVandy @macrocephalopod and

          I just don't understand why anyone looking at this would say anything other than "Bill, we are happy to run a $200m spread betting account for an eccentric multi-millionaire, but we do not take the risk of a $15bn spread betting account for an eccentric multi-billionaire"

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. Show replies

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