Over the last 2 years I’ve realized that almost the entire canon of empirical finance is closer to astrology than astronomy, and that most “quants” are astrologers who genuinely believe they’re astrophysicists.
Most deception in finance is self deception.
Ht @devl_in_detailshttps://twitter.com/NewRiverInvest/status/1373556915934875650 …
Guess my question is (zero snark here, promise) — is resolve different, and if so how?
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Because there are no actual experiments. The precedent is to draw conclusions from *in-sample* models, with no discussion of how to select assets/methods/features/etc. in advance, or the biases (and there are biases *everywhere*) introduced at each step.
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And yes, I think ReSolve's experimental design allows us to run real experiments and draw meaningful conclusions in a "clean-room" setting. We modified all strategies August/September 2020 to reflect this new thinking. So now we wait and observe.
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