Also Graham seems to just fundamentally misunderstand how tv interviews work. If the person being interviewed is going to argue for Amazon, the journalist takes the other side. This increases drama and makes both sides feel represented. Nothing to do with their actual opinion.
Journalists are dumb because they got this cherry picked example wrong (tho 90%+ of startups in this period failed) VCs are smart because some were invested in Amazon and got rich (even though the median startup investor in this period lost almost everything) S*rv*v*sh*p b**s!https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1372189920060661764 …
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The way to figure out a tv news shows actual opinion would be more like "after watching the clip which side was more convincing/better represented". If you come away thinking obviously amazon has more growth potential than Sears that's probably what the news people thought too.
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They're not dumb because they got it wrong. They're dumb because they were so confident in those mistaken predictions.
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They're not even dumb because of their confidence, but their failure to approach things with humility after being so confident and so wrong.
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Pat, I'd like to solve the puzzle...
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