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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Matt Hollerbach‏ @breakingthemark 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @therobotjames @macrocephalopod and

      Correct, but it's closer to thier typical geometric return of half thier variance the risk free rate.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @breakingthemark @macrocephalopod and

      Yeah. In "old man quant world", we'd say that you can diversify the (unrewarded) idiosyncratic vol away by diversifying (or indexing), to harness the equity risk premium.

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    3. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @therobotjames @breakingthemark and

      A common misconception is "the ERP doesn't exist if you look at an individual stocks". The truth is that the variance term for an individual stock contains a component that can be trivially removed by diversifying.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Matt Hollerbach‏ @breakingthemark 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @therobotjames @macrocephalopod and

      It exists, it's just explainable.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @breakingthemark @macrocephalopod and

      Yeah exactly. The stock contains a component of idiosyncratic volatility, which the index does not.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @therobotjames @breakingthemark and

      In your language "the geometric return of the index is higher than the individual stocks, because the index has reduced variance"

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Matt Hollerbach‏ @breakingthemark 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @therobotjames @macrocephalopod and

      Right, but why say the idiosyncratic vol is unrewarded, when the premium is explained by that idiosyncratic vol? How is it not rewarded correctly then?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @breakingthemark @macrocephalopod and

      As you noted earlier, the expected geometric return of a single stock is a lot closer to the risk-free rate, than the geometric return of the index. This is because the stock contains "stock-specific variance" that washes out (nets off on average) through diversification.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Matt Hollerbach‏ @breakingthemark 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @therobotjames @macrocephalopod and

      I said earlier that the geometric return of individual stocks is on average half thier variance above the risk free rate. This is closer to the geometric return of the index than the RFR. This is because individual stocks are stochastically efficient.https://breakingthemarket.com/stochastic-efficiency-is-real-and-its-spectacular/ …

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @breakingthemark @macrocephalopod and

      Maybe I'm too dumb to understand that Stochastic Efficiency thing. I don't understand why you would start with assuming the optimal leverage of an asset should always be 1. Why would that need to be the case? What is special about leverage 1?

      4 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @therobotjames @breakingthemark and

      It's obviously not the case and many papers (e.g. Pedersen Betting Against Beta) have shown that empirical best leverage varies across asset classes and alpha within asset classes is -ve correlated with beta, idio vol, and total vol, the opposite to what stochastic eff. predicts.

      5:01 PM - 16 Mar 2021
      • 4 Likes
      • N K Mitchell Rosenthal Robot James 🤖🏖
      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 16 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @therobotjames and

          The "stochastic efficiency" literature (which is like, two guys with zero finance experience) is an example of how you can prove a bunch of stupid results if you make a single stupid assumption.

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        1. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 16 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @breakingthemark and

          STIR traders, I have bad news for you...

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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