why would you decrease leverage to get the desired returns?
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The whole point of “volatility pumping” is that an asset with zero geometric return can be made to have positive geometric return if you reduce the leverage. My claim is that you can’t find assets with high enough volatility for that to be interesting in practice.
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That is a very simplistic view of what vol pumping is. Vol pumping isn't abut an asset with zero geo return, its just the most eye catching type. There are plenty of articles on vol pumping where cash isn't involved, and the "pumping" is just between a bunch of risky assets.
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This is exactly the same as saying that by diversifying you can reduce the volatility drag of a portfolio of assets, right? ie “diversification is the only free lunch in investing”.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @breakingthemark and
These buzzwords/terms just describe the general trading problem we're all familiar with don't they? If you find a stable (Geo mean = 0) noisy thing you can trade deviations from it. Where do I find this stable noisy thing? Well, indeed.
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Replying to @therobotjames @macrocephalopod and
Just for the record, there's nothing "stable" about a geomean=0 stock. "Stable" implies mean reversion. A geomean=0 stock driven by random multiplicative noise is completely unpredictable, that's why it's interesting. (At least to me.)
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Replying to @goldstein_aa @macrocephalopod and
If it has geomean=0 then it ultimately doesn't go anywhere. Is it not self-evident that we could profitably trade such a series if it is volatile? The main trading question is - where do you find stuff that looks a bit like this (for a small period of time or in combination)?
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Replying to @therobotjames @macrocephalopod and
If it's an arithmetic random walk with mean=0 on a log price chart, the log price diverges over time. There's no "deviation from" or "attraction to" any particular price or level. Yet if there's enough volatility you can get rich off it. Sorry, but I just think that's cool.
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Replying to @goldstein_aa @macrocephalopod and
I think it's cool too.
Most active trading (esp stat arb) is built on these foundations.
It's also where the "rebalancing premium" tends to come from in asset allocation models.1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @therobotjames @goldstein_aa and
Apologies to anyone if I came across rude/angry in any of this btw, very long day. Have wine now, all good again.
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Might try to cultivate “continually angry about quant finance” as a bit, see where that goes.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @therobotjames and
Thought that was your bit already
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