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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
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macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Mar 2021
      Replying to @zzzrrrzzz12 @goldstein_aa @breakingthemark

      Gross of tcost is fine. I’m still waiting for a description of the strategy though?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Rip‏ @zzzrrrzzz12 14 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @goldstein_aa @breakingthemark

      Here's the strat. Let's say we have a portfolio of 50% cash / 50% your simulated stock. At the end of each day, rebalance this portfolio back to 50/50. Basically, you buy more stock if it goes down and sell some if it went up that day. Let me know the returns you see.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Rip‏ @zzzrrrzzz12 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @zzzrrrzzz12 @macrocephalopod and

      So were you able to try this out? @macrocephalopod

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @zzzrrrzzz12 @goldstein_aa @breakingthemark

      I didn't bother responding because it so obviously doesn't work, but since you followed up - I implemented exactly what is described in this tweet (matab code in image) https://twitter.com/goldstein_aa/status/1370887341750038528?s=20 …pic.twitter.com/EMXiwPazXM

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @zzzrrrzzz12 and

      I then implemented your strategy here (matlab code in the first image, resulting account equity in the second image)pic.twitter.com/ra0MLhWGLZ

      4 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Rip‏ @zzzrrrzzz12 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @goldstein_aa @breakingthemark

      I really appreciate you taking the time to run this. This wasn’t the actual strategy though, you’re just holding a 50% weight in cash and 50% in a returns stream that has negative geo ret so year you’re gonna see a terrible return.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Rip‏ @zzzrrrzzz12 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @zzzrrrzzz12 @macrocephalopod and

      I’m saying start with $100 dollars, 50 in cash and 50 in the asset. At the end of each day, observe your new allocation has shifted because of the days returns. Then, rebalance 50/50 of whatever NAV you have left into cash and the asset. This is different from your example.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @zzzrrrzzz12 @goldstein_aa @breakingthemark

      That would be *exactly* the same as what I already did, except that the 'equity' variable would be multiplied by 100 to simulate starting with $100 instead of $1. It wouldn't change the overall result except that instead of ending with $0.000005 it would end with $0.0005

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @zzzrrrzzz12 and

      If we started with a stock with a *geometric* return of zero instead of *arithmetic* return zero the story would be different and you could make money (before costs) by rebalancing every day, although not at anything like the rate that you are imagining.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Rip‏ @zzzrrrzzz12 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @goldstein_aa @breakingthemark

      If a stock has arithmetic return of 0 you can just short it to harvest the vol decay because of the 1/2 sigma^2. Another way to make money from noise.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 16 Mar 2021
      Replying to @zzzrrrzzz12 @goldstein_aa @breakingthemark

      Lmao no you absolutely cannot

      11:05 AM - 16 Mar 2021
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Rip‏ @zzzrrrzzz12 16 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @goldstein_aa @breakingthemark

          You literally showed it in the last Matlab screenshot

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 16 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @zzzrrrzzz12 and

          If you shorted the stock (even in a nice, frictionless theoretical work) the vol drag still works against you, because it's a quadratic term (i.e. it is not sensitive to sign) In the real world you would lose money even faster because *gestures at real-world frictions*

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Rip‏ @zzzrrrzzz12 16 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @goldstein_aa @breakingthemark

          It’s the negative of a quadratic, so you can flip the sign

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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