Well, I'd like to think I'm not a moron, and it wasn't clear to me the arithmetic mean was 0 until you explicitly said so. Maybe that was immediately clear to non-morons before you said so?
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The reason it loses money is explained in the first tweet I made after several insane people started bringing up Shannon's demonhttps://twitter.com/macrocephalopod/status/1370830168319799298?s=20 …
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This other guy already realized it wouldn't work and retracted his claim, sadly you were not smart enough to do the same, womp womphttps://twitter.com/goldstein_aa/status/1371143515577663492?s=20 …
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I guess you missed this tweet?https://twitter.com/goldstein_aa/status/1371143515577663492 …
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I’m surprised the equity curve looks like this. It would suggest that doing the opposite could be a great money maker.
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No, if you did the opposite then the volatility drag still works against you. Geometric return is arithmetic return minus half the variance. If arithmetic return is zero then going long/short with rebalancing has the same negative expected return.
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